Secret Assassin: Round 8

[Konohuro]

sorry guys but i only had one turn... i thout it was gronk because he voted for me even after i made my litle side note to everyone...witch why?

so out of curiosity if the vote is a tie between 3 players to start each getting 2 votes what happens??

I don't understand your last question. What happens if there are 3 players left and the vote is a tie? Well, this isn't possible unless one didn't vote. In this case, day phase is over, no one is killed and obviously the assassin wins.

[NinjaMirage]

WHY WOULD THE ASSASSIN WIN IF THERE IS AN UNDECIDED VOTE?

[Shivraj]

WHY WOULD THE ASSASSIN WIN IF THERE IS AN UNDECIDED VOTE?

THERE CANNOT BE AN UNDECIDED VOTE IN 3 PEOPLE IF EVERYONE VOTES

and if one doesn't, he probably gets killed by the Game Master, or if everyone votes when 4 people are alive and it's a tie, no one dies.

[Konohuro]

WHY WOULD THE ASSASSIN WIN IF THERE IS AN UNDECIDED VOTE?

Eh, it seems I have to explain it step by step:
1. Only 2 contradictory votes out of 3 will result in a tie.
2. If it's a tie, the day phase is over, no one is killed and the night phase starts.
3. During the night phase, the assassin will kill a shinobi.
4. The night phase is over and the day phase starts with only two players: an assassin and a shinobi. According to the rules, if the number of shinobi is equal to the number of assassins, the assassins will win.

Also, please refrain from using caps as it's bothering and it insinuates anger, agitation and aggressivity towards the receiver. Just because you can't see the whole image it doesn't mean the other's perspective is wrong.

[json243]

GG everyone

[NinjaMirage]

sorry for using caps not meant to be angry or to insulate your wrong.
but let me spell out what i was thinking
turn 1- night- assassin kills
           day-  everyone votes for themselves-assassins will to because if they dont it
           will give them away
           everyone gets 1 vote so its a 7 way tie no one dies?? right?? but ambu either
            knows at least one person is or is not
           an assassin
turn 2 -night- assassin kills again possibly the ambu but unlike as its 1-5 and a 2-5
           chance.of picking the one the ambu investigated if not a assassin.
           less then 50/50
           Day- phase no one votes except for the the ambu if he know who the assassin
          if not then no one votes
           assassin's may  try and push for someone but it doesn't matter now because
           the ambu has cleared 2 people
           and himself out of 6  remaining players  2 out of the other 3 are assassins
            By the   end of the second day the
           game is over.
       
So now that i have given the wining strategy away we dont need to play this again right??? the only way the assassins win is if there lucky enough to kill the ambu.

[Konohuro]

sorry for using caps not meant to be angry or to insulate your wrong.
but let me spell out what i was thinking
turn 1- night- assassin kills
           day-  everyone votes for themselves-assassins will to because if they dont it
           will give them away
           everyone gets 1 vote so its a 7 way tie no one dies?? right?? but ambu either
            knows at least one person is or is not
           an assassin
turn 2 -night- assassin kills again possibly the ambu but unlike as its 1-5 and a 2-5
           chance.of picking the one the ambu investigated if not a assassin.
           less then 50/50
           Day- phase no one votes except for the the ambu if he know who the assassin
          if not then no one votes
           assassin's may  try and push for someone but it doesn't matter now because
           the ambu has cleared 2 people
           and himself out of 6  remaining players  2 out of the other 3 are assassins
            By the   end of the second day the
           game is over.
       
So now that i have given the wining strategy away we dont need to play this again right??? the only way the assassins win is if there lucky enough to kill the ambu.

This strategy is broken. The fissure occurs during your second turn: "Day- phase no one votes except for the the ambu if he know who the assassin if not then no one votes ".

1. If no one votes because the ANBU scouted a shinobi, than in the last second one of the assassins will make a vote. It won't matter that the ANBU will know that the one who voted was one of the assassins, he has no way of proving that he is not an assassin himself.

2. If no one votes but the ANBU, that would turn him in the next target of the assassins, making the chances of the assassins to kill the ANBU in 1/1 instead of "1/5".


PS: I don't see how the chances to kill the ANBU from the beginning can be "[..] and 2/5". They can only be 1/5.

Also, I've run through most of tactics that could turn this chance game into a complete strategy game. I couldn't find any plausible strategy and I've simulated over 10 complex strategies.
I passed once through a similar tactic as yours, the result was the same.
I reached the conclusion that there is no other way of playing this game other than how it works at the moment.

[NinjaMirage]

1st there is a way to let others know your not the assassin but i'm not giving away that strategy second. the assassins have a 2 out of 5 chance to undo the info the ambu gathered by either killing him or the one he investigated. and i should say no one votes until the ambu. insuring at least one assassin is dead but that will put a target on your head. It will always be a game of chance but like 21 there is a way of reducing the risks.
this method has the greatest chance of success.
If you look at the info the ambu gains by the end of the day phase of the second day there are only 3 outcomes.

1 he found no assassins 2 shinobi
2 he found 1 assassin and 1 shinobi
3 he found both assassins.

if 1-then he controls half the field. and a 2 in 3 chance to pick an assassin
      If he pics wrong then the ambu dies next turn and the other 2 know how
      the assassins are but as the numbers are tied the assassins win but its only a 33%
      chance of loosing
   2  then he tells the shinobi he knows to vote for the assassin
   3  he lets everyone else know how they are. and makes the vote.

this does require the shinobi to not randomly guess but to wait on the ambu.
If the assassins try and imitate the ambus role in this they instantly give away that there the assassin.
 

[SirTroll]

Also, I've run through most of tactics that could turn this chance game into a complete strategy game. I couldn't find any plausible strategy and I've simulated over 10 complex strategies.
I passed once through a similar tactic as yours, the result was the same.
I reached the conclusion that there is no other way of playing this game other than how it works at the moment.

Are you like an AI or something

[NinjaMirage]

Also, I've run through most of tactics that could turn this chance game into a complete strategy game. I couldn't find any plausible strategy and I've simulated over 10 complex strategies.
I passed once through a similar tactic as yours, the result was the same.
I reached the conclusion that there is no other way of playing this game other than how it works at the moment.

Are you like an AI or something

you know humans CAN think too... though most dont like to..

[Mars]

you know humans CAN think too... though most dont like to..

Then why haven't you thought of using an ACTUAL table or format in your mathmatical posts instead of spray painting random fucking numbers everywhere

[NinjaMirage]

Thinking is one thing Knowledge is another- if i know how to i would.
even better would be to skip trying to explain it and write the code for it-
but i cant do that either.
Although i'm not sure why you're so pissed??

[Shivraj]

1st there is a way to let others know your not the assassin but i'm not giving away that strategy second. the assassins have a 2 out of 5 chance to undo the info the ambu gathered by either killing him or the one he investigated. and i should say no one votes until the ambu. insuring at least one assassin is dead but that will put a target on your head. It will always be a game of chance but like 21 there is a way of reducing the risks.
this method has the greatest chance of success.
If you look at the info the ambu gains by the end of the day phase of the second day there are only 3 outcomes.

1 he found no assassins 2 shinobi
2 he found 1 assassin and 1 shinobi
3 he found both assassins.

if 1-then he controls half the field. and a 2 in 3 chance to pick an assassin
      If he pics wrong then the ambu dies next turn and the other 2 know how
      the assassins are but as the numbers are tied the assassins win but its only a 33%
      chance of loosing
   2  then he tells the shinobi he knows to vote for the assassin
   3  he lets everyone else know how they are. and makes the vote.

this does require the shinobi to not randomly guess but to wait on the ambu.
If the assassins try and imitate the ambus role in this they instantly give away that there the assassin.
 

how do you know that the anbu is the anbu and not the assassin huh?

IF the assassin kills the anbu, how will the assassin UNDO the info? ANBU investigates during the day and posts it in the day phase like you got me, I couldn't undo it even though everyone killed you.

Again, what if the assassins act like the ANBU? The shinobi have NO way of knowing, especially if the assassin is good at acting.

If everyone waits for the ANBU, then most of the times, shinobi will lose.

2 in 3 chance? wtf? won't always be 2 in 3, maybe the assassins kill one of the shinobi anbu investigated? 5 shinobi - 1 that wasn't investigated = 4 + 2 assassins - 1 shinobi that assassins killed(and was investigated) = 5 players the ANBU can vote for
shouldn't that be a 2 in 5 chance in such a case?

maybe he will lay low and not point any fingers until he finds an assassin, let's say he does on day phase 3, BUT the assassins have killed one more dude, so that's 2 assassins 2 shinobi and 1 ANBU, the ANBU votes assassin, 1 assassin 2 shinobi 1 anbu, anbu gets killed, now, this can go anyway, so yeah, won't always be 2 in 3 chance

How do they know who the assassins are? they don't, he can vote for 5 people in the no. 1 scenario you gave, he picks a shinobi let's say, not willingly ofc, everyone votes the shinobi, he dies, then the assassins kill the anbu, there are still 2 shinobi and 2 assassins left, the shinobi don't know who the assassins are, why? Because it can be anyone if the anbu couldn't help them, The game is over, the assassins win cause the number of shinobi is the same as the number of assassins

ofc, it can go better though.

no one can predict human behavior UNLESS they are trained to do so, which none of us are, sadly, atleast I think so.

Too lazy to go over your other posts.

BTW, it's ANBU no AMBU

Any situation can go anyway, human behavior is strange, you can't tell what will happen, so stop trying to win using some preset algorithm you made, and start improvising with the situation. Do NOT assume anything, if it's a strategy to reveal you're not an assassin, an assassin can come up with it too, keep that in mind.

[NinjaMirage]

as long as the shinobi dont kill anyone in the day phase for the first 2 turns until the "ambu" votse on the second turn. then the ambus chances of picking the assassin at random is 2-3 or better. this is math not human behavior. i will give away my strategy for identifying yourself as ambu if you want but it will make the game unplayable.

[Shivraj]

as long as the shinobi dont kill anyone in the day phase for the first 2 turns until the "ambu" votse on the second turn. then the ambus chances of picking the assassin at random is 2-3 this is math not human behavior. i will give away my strategy for identifying yourself as ambu if you want but it will make the game unplayable.

how is it 2 out of 3? I'd love to see your math on that, if two shinobi are killed, and two are investigated, then it will be 2 out of 3, but if the assassins kill one of the shinobi that was investigated? that leaves us with 1 shinobi that was investigated, which means that out of the 4 shinobi, 1 is innocent for the ANBU out of the 6 other players, making it 4(shinobi) + 2 (assassins) - 1 (innocent shinobi for ANBU) = 5, and picking an assassin out of the total 6 players, is a 2 out of 5 chance, why? because there are 2 assassins in the 5 players that the ANBU doesn't know anything about.

It will not always be a 2 out of 3 chance, but a 2 out of 3 chance CAN occur.

and that's assuming no one votes for the first day phase